[Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use

Lamar Henderson lamar43 at earthlink.net
Thu Dec 27 05:53:36 PST 2007


What does the acronym "AEO" mean. 

-----Original Message-----
From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Harvey Bryan
Sent: Wednesday, December 26, 2007 10:53 PM
To: Ade Dosunmu; Vikram Sami; Ramana Koti; BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use

All,
 
I believe Amory Lovins has plotted the AEO trend estimates for the last
thirty years, which shows that it has been consistently wrong. If I can find
that plot I will send it to everyone. Perhaps Aalok can ask Amory for that
famous plot.
 
Harvey

________________________________

From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org on behalf of Ade Dosunmu
Sent: Wed 12/26/2007 8:04 PM
To: Vikram Sami; Ramana Koti; BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use



Don't put too much stock in the AEO. The AEO is just a long term, steady
state projection under current policy conditions, and the modelled
macro-economic variables in the AEO iteslf, i.e. a putatative "most likely"
case. 

In this case, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the policy conditions
will be different from what the AEO modelled. After the conclusion of the
"Bali" post-Kyoto round in 2 to 4 years, there will be some sort of
worldwide agreement to limit Carbon emissions, and that will feedback into
future AEO's before 2030. 

The other thing the AEO, and other long-term models are not good at
modelling is technology discontinuity. Because of the large interest that
has been generated in this topic, the odds are very high is that some
technologies will come along that change some of the economic assumptions
(relative costs of energy from various sources) within the AEO model well
before 2030.   


------ Original Message ------
Received: 09:02 AM PST, 12/26/2007
From: "Vikram Sami" <VSami at lasarchitect.com>
To: "Ramana Koti" <ramana.koti at gmail.com>, <BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG>
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use 




I think we are in flux right now, and as such its going to be hard to make a
prediction based on trends. For example, if the federal RPS had passed, the
outlook would have been very different. Ultimately its not entirely an issue
of percentages, but also absolute numbers. For example in the 1940s - 1950s,
there was a 30% renewable mix. Today we produce more renewable energy, but
the overall percentage is far below. 
Initiatives like architecture 2030 work towards reducing the overall
consumption levels. We need policy makers to step in and encourage the other
side of the equation. One of the items removed from the recently passed bill
was a motion to transfer 13.5 billion dollars in subsidies (billion with a
B) from the top 5 oil corporations to fund renewable energy production. 
To quote Al Gore in his Nobel speech: 
We have everything we need to get started, save perhaps political will, but
political will is a renewable resource. 

So let us renew it, and say together: "We have a purpose. We are many. For
this purpose we will rise, and we will act." 

Vikram Sami, LEED AP
Direct Phone 404-253-1466 | Direct Fax 404-253-1366 

LORD, AECK & SARGENT ARCHITECTURE
1201 Peachtree Street NE, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA 30361 Responsive Design *
Technological Expertise * Exceptional Service www.lordaecksargent.com 

Please don't print this email unless you really have to. 
In the United States, we use enough office paper each year to build a
10-foot high wall that's 6,815 miles long or two and a half times the
distance from New York to Los Angeles. 

~ Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, "Recycling Facts and Figures,"
PUBL CE-163, 2002. 


________________________________

From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Ramana Koti
Sent: Wednesday, December 26, 2007 11:31 AM
To: BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use 


Dear all, 

The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 by the DOE EIA
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/trends.html) predicts that in 2030, 83% US
primary energy supply requirements would still be met by traditional fossil
fuels, compared to 85% in 2006. I find this in direct contrast with goals
set by initiatives like Architecture 2030... 

Does anybody know more about how realistic these predictions are and if
there are better opportunities for renewable energy? 

Thanks, 

Ramana Koti, LEED AP
Sustainable Building Analyst 

ELEMENTS division of BNIM architects
106 W. 14th Street Suite 200
Kansas City, Missouri 64105 

p 816.783.1635 f 816.783.1501
www.bnim.com| elements.bnim.com <http://elements.bnim.com/>
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