[Bldg-sim] [Sbse] RE: Grim projection of renewable energy use

Crawley, Drury Drury.Crawley at ee.doe.gov
Fri Dec 28 08:10:44 PST 2007


Take EIA's VERY conservative projections with a grain of a salt.  They
don't predict oil prices to hit current $ levels for another 10 years.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/figure_35.html 

-----Original Message-----
From: sbse-bounces at uidaho.edu [mailto:sbse-bounces at uidaho.edu] On Behalf
Of Harvey Bryan
Sent: Wednesday, December 26, 2007 10:53 PM
To: Ade Dosunmu; Vikram Sami; Ramana Koti; BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: [Sbse] RE: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use

All,
 
I believe Amory Lovins has plotted the AEO trend estimates for the last
thirty years, which shows that it has been consistently wrong. If I can
find that plot I will send it to everyone. Perhaps Aalok can ask Amory
for that famous plot.
 
Harvey

________________________________

From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org on behalf of Ade Dosunmu
Sent: Wed 12/26/2007 8:04 PM
To: Vikram Sami; Ramana Koti; BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use



Don't put too much stock in the AEO. The AEO is just a long term, steady
state projection under current policy conditions, and the modelled
macro-economic variables in the AEO iteslf, i.e. a putatative "most
likely" case. 

In this case, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the policy
conditions will be different from what the AEO modelled. After the
conclusion of the "Bali" post-Kyoto round in 2 to 4 years, there will be
some sort of worldwide agreement to limit Carbon emissions, and that
will feedback into future AEO's before 2030. 

The other thing the AEO, and other long-term models are not good at
modelling is technology discontinuity. Because of the large interest
that has been generated in this topic, the odds are very high is that
some technologies will come along that change some of the economic
assumptions (relative costs of energy from various sources) within the
AEO model well before 2030.   


------ Original Message ------
Received: 09:02 AM PST, 12/26/2007
From: "Vikram Sami" <VSami at lasarchitect.com>
To: "Ramana Koti" <ramana.koti at gmail.com>, <BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG>
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use 




I think we are in flux right now, and as such its going to be hard to
make a prediction based on trends. For example, if the federal RPS had
passed, the outlook would have been very different. Ultimately its not
entirely an issue of percentages, but also absolute numbers. For example
in the 1940s - 1950s, there was a 30% renewable mix. Today we produce
more renewable energy, but the overall percentage is far below. 
Initiatives like architecture 2030 work towards reducing the overall
consumption levels. We need policy makers to step in and encourage the
other side of the equation. One of the items removed from the recently
passed bill was a motion to transfer 13.5 billion dollars in subsidies
(billion with a B) from the top 5 oil corporations to fund renewable
energy production. 
To quote Al Gore in his Nobel speech: 
We have everything we need to get started, save perhaps political will,
but political will is a renewable resource. 

So let us renew it, and say together: "We have a purpose. We are many.
For this purpose we will rise, and we will act." 

Vikram Sami, LEED AP
Direct Phone 404-253-1466 | Direct Fax 404-253-1366 

LORD, AECK & SARGENT ARCHITECTURE
1201 Peachtree Street NE, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA 30361 Responsive Design
* Technological Expertise * Exceptional Service www.lordaecksargent.com 

Please don't print this email unless you really have to. 
In the United States, we use enough office paper each year to build a
10-foot high wall that's 6,815 miles long or two and a half times the
distance from New York to Los Angeles. 

~ Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, "Recycling Facts and
Figures," PUBL CE-163, 2002. 


________________________________

From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org
[mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Ramana Koti
Sent: Wednesday, December 26, 2007 11:31 AM
To: BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use 


Dear all, 

The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 by the DOE EIA
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/trends.html) predicts that in 2030, 83%
US primary energy supply requirements would still be met by traditional
fossil fuels, compared to 85% in 2006. I find this in direct contrast
with goals set by initiatives like Architecture 2030... 

Does anybody know more about how realistic these predictions are and if
there are better opportunities for renewable energy? 

Thanks, 

Ramana Koti, LEED AP
Sustainable Building Analyst 

ELEMENTS division of BNIM architects
106 W. 14th Street Suite 200
Kansas City, Missouri 64105 

p 816.783.1635 f 816.783.1501
www.bnim.com| elements.bnim.com <http://elements.bnim.com/>
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