[Bldg-sim] Recommended reading on comparison of models to actual?
Jeremiah Crossett
jcrossett at phasechange.com
Thu Jun 27 14:32:16 PDT 2013
Hi Jeremiah,
Would you mind sharing the resources people have shared with you, namely:
Tianzhen, thanks for the link.
Zheng, thanks for the recommended reading.
Matt, thanks for the link.
Thanks.
Diego
Doctoral Candidate
Harvard University
Diego,
I thought the responses that I got where posted to the list. For you and
others reference I post all of the responses I got:
1. Try green building advisor
(My response to this) I read this
http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/musings/energy-modeling-isn-t-very-accurate
a
while ago and did not think much of the way they talked badly about
modeling, and would prefer information from actual modelers, as I am using
this to support my actual modeling.. To me their article seems like it is
downplaying the benefits of modeling, written by someone who is reading
about modeling and writing an article rather than actively doing it. It
seems like taking advice about how to design a building from a contractor,
they understand a bit, but really it is the architect and engineer that
know what they are doing, the contractor is just the one who does it, or
possibly more like getting news from a friend rather than the source.
I am looking for personal experience or peer reviewed scientific papers. If
anyone can help?
Thanks
2. Hi;
I've got a custom house that started as an ASME design project. It was
built in 1986.
We moved in January 1987. I have extensive records of energy used,
features active
in a particular month...... would you be interested in a technology
demonstrator in the
Washington DC metro area ??
How about a Non Disclosure Agreement and a tele-meeting ??
JRR
(My response) I am not so interisted in this due to the age of the model
and complexity of the response.., modeling has came a long way since 1897!
and I do not have much time for NDA's and tele-meetings... thanks anyway
3. *Jeremiah,*
* *
*I think you’ll find a room full of experts and lots of advice on this at
the upcoming SPC 209 Meeting at ASHRAE in Denver. I’ve enclosed a copy of
the agenda, as well as the Chair’s email, Jason Glazer. Part of the work
for 209 is assembling the list you are looking for.*
* *
*Also, you’ll find useful information in the new Guideline 14, and in the
Energy Management Handbook, by Doty and Turner.www.ibpsa.org and the
www.esl.tamu.edu are also good places to check as well.*
* *
*Jeff*
* *
*++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++*
*AGENDA*
*ASHRAE SPC209 Energy Simulation Aided Design*
Monday, June 24, 2013****
2:15-6:15p Governor’s Square 12 (plaza building, concourse level)****
Sheraton Denver Downtown -****
Denver Colorado****
** **
**1. ***CALL TO ORDER*
**1.1. **Roll Call/Quorum Determination**
**1.2. **Introduction of Members and Guests****
**1.3. **Announcements**
**2. ***AGENDA REVIEW*****
**3. ***MINUTES OF THE LAST MEETING - Nelson*
**4. ***LIAISON REPORTS – Anyone present*
**5. ***SUBCOMMITTEE REPORTS*****
**5.1. **Predesign Subcommittee - Sheffer****
**5.2. **Conceptual design/Schematic design - Katzenberger****
**5.3. **Design development/Construction documents – Baker****
**5.4. **Construction/Commissioning/As-Built/Operations - Reddy****
**5.5. **Resources/References/Definitions Subcommittee - DeBaillie****
**6. ***OLD BUSINESS*****
** **
**7. ***NEW BUSINESS*****
** **
**8. ***NEXT MEETING:***
***8.1. ****Standards writing tutorial***
***8.2. ****Subcommittee calls***
***8.3. ****Full committee calls***
**9. ***ADJOURN*
* *
*Subcommittee Meeting Times and Locations: (all in plaza building,
concourse level)*
*SPC 209 Predesign Subcommittee - Sunday 6:00-10:00p Plaza Court 3*
*SPC 209 Design development/Construction documents - Sunday 6:00-10:0p
Plaza Court 6*
*SPC 209 Construction/Commissioning/As-Built/Operations - Sunday
6:00-10:00p Plaza Court 1*
*SPC 209 Resources/References/Definitions Subcommittee- Monday 8:00a-Noon Plaza
Court 1*
*SPC 209 Conceptual design/Schematic design -Monday 8:00a-Noon Plaza Court 7
*
* *
** **
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
****
** **
8=! 8=) :=) 8=) ;=) 8=) 8=( 8=) 8=() 8=) 8=| 8=) :=') 8=)8=?
Jeff S. Haberl, Ph.D.,P.E., FASHRAE.............. jhaberl at tamu.edu
Professor............................................................Office
Ph: 979-845-6507
Department of Architecture.............................Lab Ph:979-845-6065
Energy Systems Laboratory.............................FAX: 979-862-2457
Texas A&M University.....................................77843-3581
College Station, Texas, USA, 77843..................URL:www.esl.tamu.edu
8=/ 8=) :=) 8=) ;=) 8=) 8=() 8=) :=) 8=) 8=! 8=) 8=? 8=)8=0
(my response) sorry Could not make it this year:(
4. Jeremiah,
That is an important topic among researchers and practitioners in the
simulation community for the last 20-30 years.
I made a presentation on this topic in a public EETD/LBNL seminar, A closer
look at the energy performance of buildings: simulated vs. measured. Slides
are available in PDF at
http://eetd.lbl.gov/news/events/2011/03/03/a-closer-look-at-the-energy-performance-of-buildings-simulated-vs-measured
I have some journal articles discussing related topics. You can find them
by using the Google Scholar.
Tianzhen
(my response) Tianzhen, thanks for the link. This is good work, well done
and very much what I was looking for.
5. Jeremiah,
** **
In the last couple of years, we did a couple of cases with DoD buildings
and you can check the following papers:****
** **
**1. **O’Neill, Z.D. and B. Eisenhower. 2013. Leveraging the
Analysis of Parametric Uncertainty for Building Energy Model Calibration.
Building Simulation: An International Journal. DOI
10.1007/s12273-013-0125-8.****
**2. **O’Neill, Z. D., B. Eisenhower, V. Fonoberov and T. Bailey.
2012. Calibration of a Building Energy Model Considering Parametric
Uncertainty. ASHRAE Transactions, 118(2). ASHRAE Annual Meeting. San
Antonio, TX. Jun 23–27, 2012.****
**3. **O’Neill, Z. D., B. Eisenhower, S. Yuan, T. Bailey, S.
Narayanan and V. Fonoberov.2011. Modeling and Calibration of Energy Models
for a DoD Building. ASHRAE Transactions, 117(2): 358-365. ASHRAE Annual
Meeting. Montreal, Québec, Canada. June 25–29, 2011.
Zheng****
** **
=======================================****
Zheng O’Neill, PhD, PE****
Department of Mechanical Engineering****
The University of Alabama****
Box 870276****
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0276 USA
(My response) Zheng, thanks for the info, I may purchase one of these
papers, looks like very good work.
6. Hi Jeremiah,
This might be too simplistic for what you're trying to do, and it's more
"hands on" as opposed to "peer-reviewed research" but for some quick checks
here's what I do:
* Compare to CBECS. I use www.buildingbenchmarks.com. It's a quick and
free website. You enter basic info (zip code, square footage range,
primary building activity, and range of years the building was completed)
and it pulls the relevant info from CBECS for you. It gives you a simple
breakdown of average annual electric and gas usage by activity (not
monthly, unfortunately). So within a few seconds you can see how your
model compares.
* For existing buildings with utility bills available, I run a baseline
energy report per ASHRAE 14. I use www.noesisenergy.com, another free
tool. I enter in 12+ months of utility bills and it will generate
weather-normalized baseline reports, complete with the regression analysis
equations. They use heating and cooling degree days from the closest
weather station to your site (based on the calculated balance point
temperatures for heating or cooling), plus utility billing days for each
month. They do NOT factor in other variables like occupancy or
production. You can compare actual, adjusted baseline, and typical
consumption for each month, for each utility. So if you're using TMY2 or
TMY3 weather data in your model, you can see how it compares to the typical
monthly consumption from the baseline report. I use this as a guide for
calibration.
I've had a discussion with William Ball at Noesis about using their tools
to better support energy modelers, and encouraged him to check out IBPSA.
Again, this might be missing the point of your request, and a little too
simplistic, so I didn't want to post it to the entire Bldg Sim listserv....
Best of luck in your efforts and please let me know what you find!
Matt Huffman, LEED AP
Manager, Energy Services
Murphy & Miller, Inc.
(My response) Matt, these look like very useful tools, saving time going
through the database also providing useful data normalization. Thanks, I
did not know about this service and will put it to use in the future.
7. Dear Jeremiah,
I recently completed my dissertation on reusing today's design-phase
(compliance) energy models post-design, focusing on a building owner's
perspective. For #2, "How does a proposed building typically stack up
against the utility bills?", I'd say it partially depends on the original
purpose of the model. Was the modeler trying to predict utility bills, or
rather demonstrate compliance with a code/standard? For example, for
LEED-compliance models under older LEED (ASHRAE 90.1) protocol, modelers
made default assumptions regarding plug-loads. This could lead to very
inaccurate models, especially for energy-intensive programs such as labs or
data centers. I have some case studies, but they're essentially specific
to these older versions of LEED. I'm not sure if that's helpful to you.
For #3, "How accurate should an existing building model be to be considered
useful?", I'd say it depends on what you're trying to do with the model.
Test future retrofits? Benchmark the building? Detect subtle equipment
faults? I have a couple case studies that involved such major building
faults that even relatively poorly-calibrated models (per ASHRAE 14
definitions) helped detect the problems. Again, I'm not sure if that's
relevant to you.
I'm happy to share my findings if they're relevant. Please contact me if
this sounds like it might be helpful.
Best,
Holly
Holly W. Samuelson
Doctor of Design | Registered Architect | LEED AP BD+C
Lecturer Harvard Graduate School of Design
(My response) Holly, thanks for the input and please do share the case
studies.
*
*
*
*
*Jeremiah D. Crossett | Senior Analyst | Phase Change Energy Solutions*
*
120 E. Pritchard St. | Asheboro, NC 27203 | Mobile 503-688-8951
www.phasechange.com
*
*
*
*
*
On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 2:11 PM, Diego Ibarra <diegobeps at gmail.com> wrote:
> Hi Jeremiah,
>
> Would you mind sharing the resources people have shared with you, namely:
> Tianzhen, thanks for the link.
> Zheng, thanks for the recommended reading.
> Matt, thanks for the link.
>
> Thanks.
>
> Diego
> Doctoral Candidate
> Harvard University
>
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 12:28 PM, Jeremiah Crossett <
> jcrossett at phasechange.com> wrote:
>
>> Everyone,
>> Thanks for the responses.
>>
>> Tianzhen, thanks for the link.
>> Zheng, thanks for the recommended reading.
>> Matt, thanks for the link.
>> Holly, thanks for the information and yes, please do send your case
>> studies.
>>
>>
>> Cheers!
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *
>> *
>> *
>> *
>> *Jeremiah D. Crossett | Senior Analyst | Phase Change Energy Solutions
>> *
>> *
>> 120 E. Pritchard St. | Asheboro, NC 27203 | Mobile 503-688-8951
>> www.phasechange.com
>> *
>>
>> *
>> *
>> *
>> *
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 25, 2013 at 6:01 PM, Samuelson, Holly Wasilowski <
>> hsamuelson at gsd.harvard.edu> wrote:
>>
>>> Dear Jeremiah,
>>> I recently completed my dissertation on reusing today's design-phase
>>> (compliance) energy models post-design, focusing on a building owner's
>>> perspective. For #2, "How does a proposed building typically stack up
>>> against the utility bills?", I'd say it partially depends on the original
>>> purpose of the model. Was the modeler trying to predict utility bills, or
>>> rather demonstrate compliance with a code/standard? For example, for
>>> LEED-compliance models under older LEED (ASHRAE 90.1) protocol, modelers
>>> made default assumptions regarding plug-loads. This could lead to very
>>> inaccurate models, especially for energy-intensive programs such as labs or
>>> data centers. I have some case studies, but they're essentially specific
>>> to these older versions of LEED. I'm not sure if that's helpful to you.
>>>
>>> For #3, "How accurate should an existing building model be to be
>>> considered useful?", I'd say it depends on what you're trying to do with
>>> the model. Test future retrofits? Benchmark the building? Detect subtle
>>> equipment faults? I have a couple case studies that involved such major
>>> building faults that even relatively poorly-calibrated models (per ASHRAE
>>> 14 definitions) helped detect the problems. Again, I'm not sure if that's
>>> relevant to you.
>>>
>>> I'm happy to share my findings if they're relevant. Please contact me
>>> if this sounds like it might be helpful.
>>> Best,
>>> Holly
>>>
>>> Holly W. Samuelson
>>> Doctor of Design | Registered Architect | LEED AP BD+C
>>> Lecturer Harvard Graduate School of Design
>>> ------------------------------
>>> *From:* Jeremiah Crossett [jcrossett at phasechange.com]
>>> *Sent:* Monday, June 17, 2013 10:08 PM
>>>
>>> *To:* bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org; Terry Puccini
>>> *Subject:* [Bldg-sim] Recommended reading on comparison of models to
>>> actual?
>>>
>>> Dear bldg sim,
>>>
>>> I am looking for papers that elaborate on the concept of modeling, and
>>> how it correlates to actual utility data to share with people within my
>>> company.
>>>
>>> The questions keeps popping up, eg..
>>>
>>> 1. How does a baseline building compare to an average building?
>>> 2. How does a proposed building typically stack up against the
>>> utility bills once the building is built?
>>> 3. How accurate an existing building model should be to be
>>> considered useful, and how accurate is typically possible?
>>> 4. For an experimental setup what would be considered to be close
>>> enough to be considered a "validated" model?
>>>
>>> My understanding is that modeling is to show relationships between
>>> average a baseline of a chosen vintage and that of a proposed design in
>>> terms of relative percentages. For existing buildings I think that useful
>>> is within 20% and typically possible is 10%. Then for a validation model,
>>> the most important factor is similar curves and close totals.
>>>
>>> If anyone has any recommended papers, or personal experience it would
>>> be appreciated.
>>>
>>> Kind regards
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *
>>> *
>>> *Jeremiah D. Crossett | Senior Analyst | Phase Change Energy
>>> Solutions*
>>> *
>>> 120 E. Pritchard St. | Asheboro, NC 27203 | Mobile 503-688-8951
>>> www.phasechange.com
>>> *
>>>
>>> *
>>> *
>>> *
>>> *
>>>
>>>
>>
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