[Bldg-sim] Saving Energy to Save the Planet

[Jim Dirkes]

Here are a few more thoughts (gathered in haste because I'm traveling, but on my mind for a while)

*         Humans have clearly mis-managed every resource on the planet - occasionally.

*         As Bill notes, global population is leveling.  Almost every Western country is now below its population rate and is experiencing population decline.  China's population growth has been forced by law to decline for years, Europe is in a particularly sad state, the US is buoyed by immigrants' generally higher rate of having children and even historically high growth groups like Muslims are seeing significantly slowed growth.

*         Humans have (through creativity, ingenuity and need) created a host of technologies and processes that would have been considered black magic only 100 years ago - and have been doing this throughout history.  Their pluses outweigh the minuses dramatically over the course of history!

*         Reduce population and you reduce the amazing and consistent impact of human creativity!  (and while we're at it, consider how you are going to remain part of the powerful group that decides who lives and who dies - it seems to be primarily an exercise of the powerful against those who lack it.  The "Haves" against the "Have-nots".  I don't think it's a simple matter!)

*         There is ample evidence that the worries about "overpopulation" are a myth.  The advocates are well-funded myth promoters (and perhaps power-grabbers), but do not have science substantiating them.  See http://overpopulationisamyth.com/overpopulation-the-making-of-a-myth for some teasers on this topic.

*         "Global warming", which in recent years has become "climate change", seems to be in a similarly unsubstantiated position.  It's easy to find many scientific arguments against human-caused climate change (with many credible supporters), and very few IPCC or other climate change advocates who can refute their challenges.  (See http://petitionproject.org/gw_article/Review_Article_HTML.php for a detailed summary.) A short summary of concerns about climate change might be:

o   Is the global temperature changing? (Yes, as it has throughout history)

o   Is the change bad for humans?  (Maybe. Higher temperatures and associated higher CO2 levels promote plant growth - great for food production!  Greenland used to be ... green during a previous warm period!)

o   Are humans causing climate change? (some evidence says "yes", some says "insignificantly", some says "probably not". The historical data shows that global CO2  levels follow global temperature rise .. by hundreds of years.  How could it be that a following effect causes the first?)

o   Do we know how to reduce the rate of change? (I haven't read the Kyoto Protocol, but it's supposed to have predicted a global temperature reduction of a few hundredths of a degree C if every first world nation adopted its measures.  Not too impressive and not consistent with global cooling in the last decade or so despite increasing CO2 production. I wonder what the uncertainty of that model was?? We all know about the accuracy of "models"!)

*         All of that said, I am not a climate scientist.  I am an engineer who looks for facts, trends and logic.  Most of what I see and read in the population and climate change discussions is "Trust me, I have the support of a big government-funded project", or ad hominem (look it up!) rebuttals.  Since when has science been a "consensus"?  It's a good thing Galileo and Newton and Einstein didn't conduct research by consensus! If the facts are really on your side, they'll stand up to scrutiny.  I'd love to hear a reasoned debate by knowledgeable people on both sides of these issues, but one of the sides seems curiously un-inclined to debate....

*         P.s., I am also the father of seven children who has marveled at the amazing diversity of insight and talent among my own family.  The potential of children is proven and holds incredible promise for all the rest of us.  It's impossible to predict what they might do, but history demonstrates clearly that they consistently outperform expectations!


From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Bishop, Bill
Sent: Friday, September 27, 2013 4:58 PM
To: Varkie Thomas; bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Saving Energy to Save the Planet

Varkie,

Yes.
We need to make "standard of living" distinct from energy intensity. Carbon diets all around.
Being a stickler for numbers (and having researched this for a Climate Change presentation I'm doing next week) I modified and added to your table, using data from this website<http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/>. Population growth has been nearly linear over the past 30 to 40 years and is expected to level off at 10 bn.


1999

12

6,000

1,000

83


2011

12

7,000

1,000

83


2024

13

8,000

1,000

77


2040

16

9,000

1,000

63


2062

22

10,000

1,000

45


Regards,
Bill

William Bishop, PE, BEMP, BEAP, LEED AP | Pathfinder Engineers & Architects LLP
Senior Energy Engineer

134 South Fitzhugh Street                 Rochester, NY 14608
T: (585) 325-6004 Ext. 114            F: (585) 325-6005
bbishop at pathfinder-ea.com<mailto:wbishop at pathfinder-ea.com>           www.pathfinder-ea.com<http://www.pathfinder-ea.com/>
P   Sustainability - the forest AND the trees. P

From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org<mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org> [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Varkie Thomas
Sent: Friday, September 27, 2013 1:19 PM
To: bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org<mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
Subject: [Bldg-sim] Saving Energy to Save the Planet

Increasing transportation and building energy use is not going to save the planet.
It requires controlling the human population growth.



The Impact of Building Energy Standards on Saving the Planet.
Human population growth


Year

No. of

No. of

Human

Increase




Years

Humans

Increase

per Year




Apart

(millions)

(millions)

(millions)

BC

10,000



5





BC

3,000

7,000

25

20

0


0

3,000

250

225

0


1,700

1,700

700

450

0


1,800

100

1,000

300

10


1,900

100

1,600

600

16


1,930

30

2,000

400

67


1,960

30

3,000

1,000

100


1,975

15

4,000

1,000

267


1,987

12

5,000

1,000

417


2,000

13

6,000

1,000

462


2,010

10

7,000

1,000

700


2,015

5

8,000

1,000

1,600




The population of America is about 300 million, Europe's (Western, Eastern, and Russia) is about 700 million, and in Japan and Korea it is about 200 million.  There are about another 800 million in the rest of the world (China, India, Brazil, etc.) with same standard of living.  This represents less than 30% of the world's population of 7,000 million.  However, this 30% use almost all of the earth's resources and is responsible for almost all of the industrial pollution and global warming.



There is no population growth in the 30% segment of the population with a high (energy wasting) standard of living, but their energy use per capita is escalating at faster rate than the population which is escalating at an alarming rate.  If the other 70% population were to reach the same standard of living as the energy wasters and polluters (the 30% segment) we would have to consider "Global Heating".   Standard of living might curb population growth but it results in escalating energy use and atmospheric pollution.



Industrial pollution would make life impossible on this planet if the other 70% of the world's population (which is escalating) were to reach the living standards of the existing 30%.  Industrial pollution is not the main threat.  At the present rate of human population growth, forests, vegetation, and most large animal life will be devastated in a few hundred years.  This has happened in the past as with the dinosaurs.



Uncontrolled human population growth has destroyed forests and vegetation.  It is responsible for destroying animal life as well, particularly the large mammals that require large amounts of forest and grassland to survive.  Tigers, lions, elephants, giraffes, rhinos and hippos are going join dinosaurs as interesting science education in schools.  Humans will soon be competing for space on this planet only with rats, cockroaches, flies, and insects.  History has shown that the smaller creature will win.

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