[Equest-users] Uncertainty In Predicted Energy Savings

[Niko Michael Kalinic]

Hello Energy Modelers,

When using calibrated models to predict and verify energy savings from ECM's
has anyone come across a coherent method to determine uncertainty in
predicted savings?

ASHRAE Guideline 14 states that "there is still no broad consensus as to how
to determine uncertainty or risk levels based on a calibrated simulation
approach...." yet it is stated that "the level of uncertainty be less than
50% of the annual reported savings at a confidence level of 68%", withouth
providing much detail.

I am familiar with calibration accuracy (ERR, CV(RSME)..), but when it comes
to predicted savings based off a calibrated model how does one quantify the
uncertainty?

I would greatly appreciate some input on this topic, as I find it a rather
important one!

Thank You For Your Time,
Niko



-- 
Niko Michael Kalinic
University of Colorado
Building Systems Program
kalinic at colorado.edu
cell: (303)887-5685
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