[Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)

Eurek, John S NWO John.S.Eurek at usace.army.mil
Wed Jan 12 13:12:03 PST 2011


Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

I don't know who writes the equest program, but is there any expectation of
getting a Monte Carlo type simulation?

What is Monte Carlo?  It is a method of stating the probability of an event
then running simulation.  A great example is the occupancy in a room:
example [80% chance of being empty, 10% of having 5 people and 10% chance of
having 9 people. (From 8a.m. till 5p.m.)]

Then each hour it randomly selects either (0,5,9) people based on the
probability.

(The only problem would be each run would have unique results, but over the
full year the deviations would be minimal.)

It would really help with meeting rooms, bathrooms, and all the other random
events that can better be expressed as a probability rather than a set number
at a set time.

Currently when you have 10 offices and occupancy is 10%, there is a 1/10th of
a person in each office.  Monte Carlo would say that each office has a 10%
chance of a person being present, and the person would be there or they would
not.

Just a question.  We make a living making stuff up, this is just another way
to get closer to making up better stuff.

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE





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