[Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)

[Jeremy Poling]

Monte Carlo methods are usually more for large quantities of repetitive simulations, still to your point of driving at an answer that carries a higher statistical reality.  Energy modeling software is essentially not written that way, but the engines behind the software could be used to handle it.  If it is only occupancy you want to adjust with the Monte Carlo analysis, you could use eQuest to create the input file language and then write a script in some programming language to do the Monte Carlo analysis and run the model through the DOE2.2 engine.  I would guess that doing that would require the DOE2.2 engine files from the developer (go to http://doe2.com ***NOTE: no "www").
 
The other option is to use the Monte Carlo analysis combined with some statistical determination model to figure out the best schedule to input into eQuest as the schedule.  Chances are that for those particular room types, the difference between the Monte Carlo'd results and your educated guess will be minimal compared to the total energy use of the building.  Also, keep in mind that TMY weather files are statistically generated typical year weather based on approximately 30-years of weather records.  The accuracy of a forward looking energy model will be constrained to the accuracy of those 30-years being representative of the year the model is projecting.
 
I think everyone on the list can appreciate the desire for the model to be accurate, but the expectation of accuracy for the energy modeler must be equal to or less than the expectation of accuracy for a meteorologist, right?
 
Jeremy R. Poling, PE, LEED AP+BDC


________________________________

From: equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org on behalf of Charles Land
Sent: Wed 1/12/2011 3:30 PM
To: Eurek, John S NWO; equest-users at lists.onebuilding.org
Subject: Re: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)



The only problem would be as you said the unrepeatability.  You could always make a complex schedule and put 5 people one day for a few hours then 9 then etc...  Probably wouldn't be worth the time though.

-----Original Message-----
From: equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Eurek, John S NWO
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 4:12 PM
To: equest-users at lists.onebuilding.org
Subject: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

I don't know who writes the equest program, but is there any expectation of
getting a Monte Carlo type simulation?

What is Monte Carlo?  It is a method of stating the probability of an event
then running simulation.  A great example is the occupancy in a room:
example [80% chance of being empty, 10% of having 5 people and 10% chance of
having 9 people. (From 8a.m. till 5p.m.)]

Then each hour it randomly selects either (0,5,9) people based on the
probability.

(The only problem would be each run would have unique results, but over the
full year the deviations would be minimal.)

It would really help with meeting rooms, bathrooms, and all the other random
events that can better be expressed as a probability rather than a set number
at a set time.

Currently when you have 10 offices and occupancy is 10%, there is a 1/10th of
a person in each office.  Monte Carlo would say that each office has a 10%
chance of a person being present, and the person would be there or they would
not.

Just a question.  We make a living making stuff up, this is just another way
to get closer to making up better stuff.

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE


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