[Bldg-sim] *****SPAM***** Re: What do people do about Leap Years? was Re: Energy model calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
Joe Huang
yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
Wed Jun 24 15:32:21 PDT 2015
Justin,
That's right. The biggest impact of the missing leap day is not the missing day itself,
but the shift in the days of the week after Feb. 29th. Yesterday I made a run for a leap
year (1992) to confirm that DOE-2 doesn't adjust the days of the week for the missing day,
i.e., Mar. 1 is not two days-of-the-week behind Feb. 28.
Now, if you're modeling a building that has distinct workday and weekend schedules, as all
commercial buildings do, the daily load shapes will be out of phase with what they
actually are from March 1 through the end of the year. To me, that alone would be
sufficient reason to fix, especially that the fix is not very difficult.
The main reason this defect has been neglected so far is that most simulations are still
being done for design assessment using "typical year" weather data. However, now that
more simulations are being done using actual year weather data to compare to actual
performance, the defect is no longer so trivial.
Joe
Joe Huang
White Box Technologies, Inc.
346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
Moraga CA 94556
yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
(o) (925)388-0265
(c) (510)928-2683
"building energy simulations at your fingertips"
On 6/24/2015 3:01 PM, Justin Spencer wrote:
> It's days of the week that matter. You'll never get your calibration to line up on daily
> or hourly usage if your days of the week get off. I was trying to say in my earlier
> response that your days of the week are not off by a day if you just let it ride and
> have your simulation still run through days 1-365. What's off by a day is your month
> start and end days and potentially your holidays, which you can relatively easily set to
> alternate dates.
>
> On Wed, Jun 24, 2015 at 3:54 PM, Keith Swartz <KSwartz at seventhwave.org
> <mailto:KSwartz at seventhwave.org>> wrote:
>
> This has been an interesting thread. I raised this question at an ASHRAE conference
> a few years ago and nobody in that session did anything to account for Leap Day.
>
> Couldn’t the day of the week selected for January 1 be shifted a day so that the
> last 10 months of the year will match and only 2 months will be off (instead of 2
> months matching and 10 months being off a day)?
>
> Keith Swartz, PE
>
> Senior Energy Engineer | *Seventhwave *| *Madison.Chicago.Minneapolis*
>
> (formerly Energy Center of Wisconsin)
>
> 608.210.7123 <tel:608.210.7123> | www.seventhwave.org <http://www.seventhwave.org/>
>
> *From:*Jim Dirkes [mailto:jim at buildingperformanceteam.com
> <mailto:jim at buildingperformanceteam.com>]
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 23, 2015 7:46 PM
> *To:* James Hansen
> *Cc:* bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [Bldg-sim] What do people do about Leap Years? was Re: Energy model
> calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
>
> Dear Joe,
>
> Absolutely no condescension intended. I apologize for even coming close. It was
> supposed to be tongue in cheek; I realize that switching software is a tough thing
> and not necessarily a good plan for all.
>
> On Tue, Jun 23, 2015 at 5:17 PM, James Hansen <jhansen at ghtltd.com
> <mailto:jhansen at ghtltd.com>> wrote:
>
> Getting upset that eQuest / DOE-2 doesn’t incorporate leap year data is like
> getting upset that it can’t predict a snow day. Or a power outage. If you are
> using an energy model for a specific task where missing 1 day in 1,460 is going
> to affect someone’s decision making process, and/or you’re not willing to
> multiply February energy consumption by 29/28 for that year, then that is
> worrisome. No energy modeling program is so accurate that this would make a
> difference. But that’s just my opinion. I have lots of scratches on my car and
> don’t care…
>
> -James
>
> *From:*Bldg-sim [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org
> <mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org>] *On Behalf Of *Karen Walkerman
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 23, 2015 4:57 PM
> *To:* bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [Bldg-sim] What do people do about Leap Years? was Re: Energy
> model calibration - normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
>
> I hear your frustrations Joe, but after finding many, many issues with
> eQuest/Doe-2 that never got fixed, I eventually did "just" switch to
> EnergyPlus. I'm not sure when the last time DOE2 got a major update, but
> EnergyPlus is getting major updates all the time. There are people actively
> supporting this software and every bug and idiosyncrasy I've found has either
> been fixed, or is in the cue to be fixed.
>
> In my opinion, this community needs to either:
>
> 1. Support a major update to eQuest/DOE-2 that fixes this, and many other
> issues. If you are capable and interested in fixing some of these bugs - maybe
> try a crowdfunding campaign? People could contribute towards fixing particular
> issues or bugs.
>
> 2. Recognize the limitations of eQuest/ DOE-2 and use it only when projects can
> be appropriately modeled with this software.
>
> 3. Switch software packages completely.
>
> One of the challenges in this industry is that people are used to getting
> software for free. eQuest, DOE-2, EnergyPlus have all be developed in large
> part with public funding. When that funding goes away, support stops, but
> people still have the expectation that the software should be free.
>
> --
>
> Karen
>
> On Tue, Jun 23, 2015 at 4:43 PM, Joe Huang <yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
> <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>> wrote:
>
> The responses so far are not what I expected and, in my view, miss the point.
> I was not talking about workarounds or ignoring the missing day in DOE-2,
> which is what I presume everyone has been doing up until now. I'm frankly
> tired of that, because adding the fixes to DOE-2 seems to be quite easy to do.
>
> I also find the responses of "just use EnergyPlus" to be disingenuous and
> condescending. It's like trying to fix a scratch on your car, and then
> somebody comes by and says, "oh, just go and buy this new better one".
>
> Joe
>
> Joe Huang
>
> White Box Technologies, Inc.
>
> 346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
>
> Moraga CA 94556
>
> yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>
>
> http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
>
> (o)(925)388-0265 <tel:%28925%29388-0265>
>
> (c)(510)928-2683 <tel:%28510%29928-2683>
>
> "building energy simulations at your fingertips"
>
> On 6/23/2015 1:21 PM, Justin Spencer wrote:
>
> I think the cleanest is you just pretend every day is off by one. Ignore
> all of the month garbage (yes you'll be off by a day at times). Just
> think about it as days 1-365, with the right day of the week assigned.
> You can reassign your holidays if you want. You wind up dropping the
> real 12/31.
>
> But I like the "just use EnergyPlus" option.
>
> On Tue, Jun 23, 2015 at 12:57 PM, Jim Dirkes
> <jim at buildingperformanceteam.com
> <mailto:jim at buildingperformanceteam.com>> wrote:
>
> 1. Use EnergyPlus :), which allows >365 days. This is also helpful
> when the combined two-fuel billing cycle is 13-14 months.
> 2. Ignore the 1/365 difference. Do you really think it will matter
> much?
>
> On Tue, Jun 23, 2015 at 2:48 PM, Joe Huang
> <yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
> <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>> wrote:
>
> This is a little off-topic, but something I've pondered for some
> time...
>
> The question is when people are using eQUEST/DOE-2 with
> historical year weather, what do you do when it's a leap year?
> Since DOE-2
> always simulates a 365-day year, do you just ignore the missing
> leap day, but then don't the Days of Week also get screwed up
> starting in March?
>
> Since a quarter of the years are leap years, I've never
> understood why accounting for them has been considered an
> insignificant detail.
> I mean, if I told you that a quarter of the time your simulation
> results would be a little wrong, isn't that a pretty high frequency?
>
> Many eQUEST/DOE-2 users also have the mistaken impression that
> the fault lies in the DOE-2 weather files, which is not true.
> Believe it or not, but the packed DOE-2 weather file format
> actually contains 384 days (32 days per month), and all the
> DOE-2 weather files I produce always contains Feb. 29 for the
> leap years (as well as other enhancements like greater precision
> in the data).
>
> So, where does the problem lie? It's in the clock within DOE-2
> that always sets February to be 28 days. In other words, DOE-2
> will read the weather file and do the simulation only through
> February 28th, even though the weather file contains data
> through February 32nd (:-)), although everything beyond the 28th
> would be blank on non-leap years, and beyond the 29th on leap
> years.
>
> When I've looked through the DOE-2.1E code, there are even flags
> setting the leap years but these are never used. I've thought
> many times of toying around with the code to see how difficult
> it would be to implement leap years, but just haven't gotten
> around to it. As far as I can see, the biggest difficulty might
> might have to do not with the simulation itself, but with the
> reporting.
>
> I'd like to know if others think this is something of sufficient
> importance to merit further investigation.
>
> Joe
>
> Joe Huang
>
> White Box Technologies, Inc.
>
> 346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
>
> Moraga CA 94556
>
> yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>
>
> http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
>
> (o)(925)388-0265 <tel:%28925%29388-0265>
>
> (c)(510)928-2683 <tel:%28510%29928-2683>
>
> "building energy simulations at your fingertips"
>
> On 6/23/2015 10:27 AM, Collinge, William Overton wrote:
>
> All,
>
> This is a fantastic thread, and I am wondering if it could
> be taken one step further to query if anyone has experience
> with methods to attempt calibrating models of energy savings
> attributable to retrofits of multiple systems simultaneously
> (plant, envelope, HVAC etc. – as most real-world retrofits
> likely are), going past the 4- or 5-parameter breakpoint
> regression models to incorporate inverse modeling of
> specific load types and their space- or time-variable
> characteristics. This would fit under multivariate methods
> in the last line of Table 2 in the older version of ASHRAE
> Guideline 14 that Jeff Haberl has posted on his website, and
> would attempt to standardize Maria’s Step 5 below without
> (possibly) the need to conduct as much in-depth field
> verification as might otherwise be required. I’ve dabbled in
> this a little bit…without extensive discussions with others…
>
> Example: changing the OA ventilation rate is going to have a
> specific load profile versus some retrofit that affects the
> solar gain rate. Of course, much easier in theory to do
> calibrations of this sort with hourly meter data versus
> monthly utility bills…
>
> Bill Collinge
>
> Postdoctoral Scholar
>
> University of Pittsburgh
>
> Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
>
> *From:* Bldg-sim
> [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] *On Behalf
> Of *Maria Karpman
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 23, 2015 12:02 PM
> *To:* 'Jeff Haberl'; 'Joe Huang';
> bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
> <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration -
> normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
>
> Hello all,
>
> We usually do the following to calibrate model to monthly
> utility bills:
>
> 1) Create or purchase weather file corresponding to
> pre-retrofit period for which we have billing data. Lately
> we’ve been using WeatherAnalytics files, which we found to
> be more cost effective than creating our own (they charge
> $40 for an annual file).
>
> 2) Run simulation using this weather file instead of TMY.
>
> 3) Standard simulation reports (we typically use eQUEST)
> show usage by calendar month (e.g. January, February, etc.)
> which is usually not aligned with dates of utility bills, as
> noted in the question that started this thread. As Brian
> mentioned in one of the earlier posts, this may be
> circumvented by entering the actual meter read dates into
> eQUEST as shown in the screenshot below. This will align
> usages shown in eQUEST’s “E*” reports such as ES-E with the
> actual utility bills. The approach does not allow entering
> more than one read date per month (e.g. we can’t capture
> April 3 – 28 bill). For projects where this limitation is an
> issue we generate hourly reports that show consumption by
> end use for each meter in the project, and aggregate it into
> periods that are aligned with utility bills.
>
> cid:image001.png at 01D0ADD6.D9D5F9F0
>
> 4) We then copy simulation outputs (either from ES-E or
> hourly reports, depending on the method used) into a
> standard spreadsheet with utility data. The spreadsheet is
> set up to plot side by side monthly utility bills and
> simulated usage, and also calculates normalized mean bias
> error (NMBE) and variance CV(RMSE).
>
> 5) If we did not to where we want to be with NMBE and
> CV(RMSE) we adjust and re-run the model, and re-paste
> results into the same spreadsheet.
>
> In my experience regression analysis using weather as
> independent variable (i.e. running model with TMY file and
> normalizing for difference in weather) or relying on HDD to
> allocate usage to billing periods can be very misleading,
> mainly because on many projects weather is not the main
> driver of consumption. For example energy usage of a school
> during a given time period depends much more on vacation
> schedule than outdoor dry bulb temperatures.
>
> Thanks,
>
> --
>
> *Maria Karpman *LEED AP, BEMP, CEM
>
> ________________
>
> Karpman Consulting
>
> www.karpmanconsulting.net <http://www.karpmanconsulting.net/>
>
> Phone 860.430.1909 <tel:860.430.1909>
>
> 41C New London Turnpike
>
> Glastonbury, CT 06033
>
> *From:* Bldg-sim
> [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] *On Behalf
> Of *Jeff Haberl
> *Sent:* Tuesday, June 23, 2015 10:16 AM
> *To:* Joe Huang; bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
> <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration -
> normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
>
> Hello Joe,
>
> Yes, you can count the degree days and regress against that
> to show a correlation. However, one will get a better "fit"
> to the weather data if you regress to the degree day that is
> calculated for the balance point temperature of the building
> -- hence the inverse model toolkit or the variable based
> degree day method.
>
> PRISM actually calculates the degree days to a variety of
> change points and actually provides a table for each
> location that you use as a look up. The IMT will actually
> perform a variable based degree day calculation that agrees
> well with PRISM. IMT will also provide you with the average
> daily temperature for the billing period.
>
> When using DOE-2 for actual billing periods, one will have
> to extract the appropriate hourly variable, sum it to daily
> and then regroup to align with the billing periods. Here's a
> chunk of code that will create a dummy plant, display PV-A,
> PS-A, PS-E and BEPS, and extract the relevant hourly
> variables to normalize the BEPS to the utility bills:
>
> INPUT PLANT ..
>
> PLANT-REPORT VERIFICATION = (PV-A)
>
> $ PV-A, EQUIPMENT SIZES
>
> SUMMARY = (PS-A,PS-E,BEPS)
>
> $ PS-A, PLANT ENERGY UTILIZATION SUMMARY
>
> $ PS-E, MONTHLY ENERGY END USE SUMMARY
>
> $ BEPS, BUILDING ENERGY PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
>
> HVAC=PLANT-ASSIGNMENT ..
>
> $ EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTION
>
> $ ELECTRIC DOMESTIC WATER HEATER
>
> BOIL-1 =PLANT-EQUIPMENT TYPE=ELEC-DHW-HEATER SIZE=-999 ..
>
> $ ELECTRIC HOT-WATER BOILER
>
> BOIL-2 =PLANT-EQUIPMENT TYPE=ELEC-HW-BOILER SIZE=-999 ..
>
> $ HERMETICALLY SEALED CENT CHILLER
>
> CHIL-1 =PLANT-EQUIPMENT TYPE=HERM-CENT-CHLR SIZE=-999 ..
>
> $ Graphics block for Data Processing ***
>
> RP-3 = SCHEDULE THRU DEC 31 (ALL) (1,24) (1) ..
>
> $ 8 = Total PLANT heating load (Btu/h)
>
> $ 9 = Total PLANT cooling load (Btu/h)
>
> $ 10 = Total PLANT electric load (Btu/h)
>
> BLOCK-3-1 = REPORT-BLOCK
>
> VARIABLE-TYPE = PLANT
>
> VARIABLE-LIST = (8,9,10) ..
>
> BLOCK-3-2 = REPORT-BLOCK
>
> VARIABLE-TYPE = GLOBAL
>
> VARIABLE-LIST = (1) ..
>
> HR-3 = HOURLY-REPORT
>
> REPORT-SCHEDULE = RP-3
>
> REPORT-BLOCK = (BLOCK-3-1,BLOCK-3-2) ..
>
> END ..
>
> COMPUTE PLANT ..
>
> STOP ..
>
> 8=! 8=) :=) 8=) ;=) 8=) 8=( 8=) 8=() 8=) 8=| 8=)
> :=') 8=) 8=?
> Jeff S. Haberl,
> Ph.D.,P.E.inactive,FASHRAE,FIBPSA,......jhaberl at tamu.edu
> <mailto:........jhaberl at tamu.edu>
> Professor........................................................................Office
> Ph: 979-845-6507 <tel:979-845-6507>
> Department of
> Architecture............................................Lab
> Ph:979-845-6065 <tel:979-845-6065>
> Energy Systems
> Laboratory...........................................FAX:
> 979-862-2457 <tel:979-862-2457>
> Texas A&M
> University...................................................77843-3581
> College Station, Texas, USA,
> 77843.............................http://esl.tamu.edu
> 8=/ 8=) :=) 8=) ;=) 8=) 8=() 8=) :=) 8=) 8=! 8=) 8=?
> 8=) 8=0
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> *From:* Bldg-sim [bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org
> <mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org>] on behalf
> of Joe Huang [yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com
> <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>]
> *Sent:* Monday, June 22, 2015 9:17 PM
> *To:* bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
> <mailto:bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org>
> *Subject:* Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy model calibration -
> normalizing the utility bills to month start-end
>
> Maybe I'm missing something here, but why can't you just
> count up the degree days for the utility period?
> I hope you're not working with average or "typical year"
> degree days, but the degree days from the same time period.
>
> I also recall that the old Princeton Scorekeeping Method
> (PRISM) back in the 1980's allows the user to enter the
> degree days for that time period, so it's not a new problem.
>
> Joe
>
> Joe Huang
>
> White Box Technologies, Inc.
>
> 346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 205A
>
> Moraga CA 94556
>
> yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com <mailto:yjhuang at whiteboxtechnologies.com>
>
> http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
>
> (o)(925)388-0265 <tel:%28925%29388-0265>
>
> (c)(510)928-2683 <tel:%28510%29928-2683>
>
> "building energy simulations at your fingertips"
>
> On 6/22/2015 6:09 AM, Jones, Christopher wrote:
>
> When calibrating an energy model to utility bills the
> utility bills often don’t align with the month start and
> end. I have reviewed a couple methods to calendar
> normalize the utility bills but find them somewhat
> unsatisfactory.
>
> For example the method I am looking at does the following:
>
> The April gas bill runs from March 25 – April 24. The
> algorithm takes the average number of m3 per day from
> that bill, applies it to the days in April. Then it
> takes the average number of days from the May bill which
> runs from April 24 – May 25 and applies that average to
> the remaining days in April.
>
> The issue is that the March-April period has much higher
> HDD than the April-May period and the “normalized” gas
> usage is significantly lower than the simulation data
> for April.
>
> I am wondering if there are any papers or other sources
> of information as to how others approach this problem.
>
> cid:image003.png at 01D09C46.E75BA0D0
>
> *Christopher Jones,*P.Eng./
> /Senior Engineer
>
> *WSP Canada Inc.*
>
> 2300 Yonge Street, Suite 2300
>
> Toronto, ON M4P 1E4
> T +1 416-644-4226 <tel:%2B1%20416-644-4226>
>
> F +1 416-487-9766 <tel:%2B1%20416-487-9766>
>
> C +1 416-697-0065 <tel:%2B1%20416-697-0065>
>
> www.wspgroup.com <http://www.wspgroup.com/>
>
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> --
>
> James V Dirkes II, PE, BEMP, LEED AP
> CEO/President
> The Building Performance Team Inc.
> 1631 Acacia Dr, GR, Mi 49504
>
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>
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>
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>
> James V Dirkes II, PE, BEMP, LEED AP
> CEO/President
> The Building Performance Team Inc.
> 1631 Acacia Dr, GR, Mi 49504
>
> Direct: 616.450.8653 <tel:616.450.8653>
> jim at buildingperformanceteam.com <mailto:jim at buildingperformanceteam.com>
>
> Website <http://buildingperformanceteamcom>l LinkedIn
> <https://www.linkedin.com/pub/jim-dirkes/7/444/413>
>
> Studies show that four out of every three people have a hard time with math.
>
>
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