[Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)

[David Eldridge]

You might enjoy this paper that will help you quantify the change in modeled
outputs that result from changes to an input variable.



http://www.hvac.okstate.edu/research/Documents/Spitler_Fisher_Zietlow_89.pdf



Although not quite the same thing that you are after, you can perform this
evaluation with quite a bit fewer iterations and get some idea where to
focus on refining the model.



Use BLAST for extra credit ;)



David





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*From:* equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:
equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] *On Behalf Of *Anthony Hardman
*Sent:* Wednesday, January 12, 2011 3:55 PM
*To:* 'Eurek, John S NWO'; equest-users at lists.onebuilding.org
*Subject:* Re: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)



Not a bad idea but… a true monte carlo analysis relies on random number
generation, which would yield different occupancies every time you ran the
simulation and therefore  different energy results.  Which output would you
submit for code compliance?  The HVAC industry has simplified/approximated
this by implementing diversity factors.  Not to mention the additional
layers of complexity you’d have to add to the software, modeling standards
etc.



*Anthony Hardman, PE*

*LEED AP BD&C*

Building Performance Analyst



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-----Original Message-----
From: equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:
equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Charles Land
Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 2:31 PM
To: Eurek, John S NWO; equest-users at lists.onebuilding.org
Subject: Re: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)



The only problem would be as you said the unrepeatability.  You could always
make a complex schedule and put 5 people one day for a few hours then 9 then
etc...  Probably wouldn't be worth the time though.



-----Original Message-----

From: equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:
equest-users-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Eurek, John S NWO

Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 4:12 PM

To: equest-users at lists.onebuilding.org

Subject: [Equest-users] Monte Carlo (UNCLASSIFIED)



Classification: UNCLASSIFIED

Caveats: NONE



I don't know who writes the equest program, but is there any expectation of
getting a Monte Carlo type simulation?



What is Monte Carlo?  It is a method of stating the probability of an event
then running simulation.  A great example is the occupancy in a room:

example [80% chance of being empty, 10% of having 5 people and 10% chance of
having 9 people. (From 8a.m. till 5p.m.)]



Then each hour it randomly selects either (0,5,9) people based on the
probability.



(The only problem would be each run would have unique results, but over the
full year the deviations would be minimal.)



It would really help with meeting rooms, bathrooms, and all the other random
events that can better be expressed as a probability rather than a set
number at a set time.



Currently when you have 10 offices and occupancy is 10%, there is a 1/10th
of a person in each office.  Monte Carlo would say that each office has a
10% chance of a person being present, and the person would be there or they
would not.



Just a question.  We make a living making stuff up, this is just another way
to get closer to making up better stuff.



Classification: UNCLASSIFIED

Caveats: NONE





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