[Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use

Harvey Bryan Harvey.Bryan at asu.edu
Wed Dec 26 19:52:46 PST 2007


All,
 
I believe Amory Lovins has plotted the AEO trend estimates for the last thirty years, which shows that it has been consistently wrong. If I can find that plot I will send it to everyone. Perhaps Aalok can ask Amory for that famous plot.
 
Harvey

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From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org on behalf of Ade Dosunmu
Sent: Wed 12/26/2007 8:04 PM
To: Vikram Sami; Ramana Koti; BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use



Don't put too much stock in the AEO. The AEO is just a long term, steady state projection under current policy conditions, and the modelled macro-economic variables in the AEO iteslf, i.e. a putatative "most likely" case. 

In this case, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the policy conditions will be different from what the AEO modelled. After the conclusion of the "Bali" post-Kyoto round in 2 to 4 years, there will be some sort of worldwide agreement to limit Carbon emissions, and that will feedback into future AEO's before 2030. 

The other thing the AEO, and other long-term models are not good at modelling is technology discontinuity. Because of the large interest that has been generated in this topic, the odds are very high is that some technologies will come along that change some of the economic assumptions (relative costs of energy from various sources) within the AEO model well before 2030.   


------ Original Message ------ 
Received: 09:02 AM PST, 12/26/2007 
From: "Vikram Sami" <VSami at lasarchitect.com> 
To: "Ramana Koti" <ramana.koti at gmail.com>, <BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG> 
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu 
Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use 




I think we are in flux right now, and as such its going to be hard to make a prediction based on trends. For example, if the federal RPS had passed, the outlook would have been very different. Ultimately its not entirely an issue of percentages, but also absolute numbers. For example in the 1940s - 1950s, there was a 30% renewable mix. Today we produce more renewable energy, but the overall percentage is far below. 
Initiatives like architecture 2030 work towards reducing the overall consumption levels. We need policy makers to step in and encourage the other side of the equation. One of the items removed from the recently passed bill was a motion to transfer 13.5 billion dollars in subsidies (billion with a B) from the top 5 oil corporations to fund renewable energy production. 
To quote Al Gore in his Nobel speech: 
We have everything we need to get started, save perhaps political will, but political will is a renewable resource. 

So let us renew it, and say together: "We have a purpose. We are many. For this purpose we will rise, and we will act." 

Vikram Sami, LEED AP 
Direct Phone 404-253-1466 | Direct Fax 404-253-1366 

LORD, AECK & SARGENT ARCHITECTURE 
1201 Peachtree Street NE, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA 30361 
Responsive Design * Technological Expertise * Exceptional Service 
www.lordaecksargent.com 

Please don't print this email unless you really have to. 
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~ Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, "Recycling Facts and Figures," PUBL CE-163, 2002. 


________________________________

From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org [mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Ramana Koti 
Sent: Wednesday, December 26, 2007 11:31 AM 
To: BLDG-SIM at ONEBUILDING.ORG 
Cc: sbse at uidaho.edu 
Subject: [Bldg-sim] Grim projection of renewable energy use 


Dear all, 

The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 by the DOE EIA (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/trends.html) predicts that in 2030, 83% US primary energy supply requirements would still be met by traditional fossil fuels, compared to 85% in 2006. I find this in direct contrast with goals set by initiatives like Architecture 2030... 

Does anybody know more about how realistic these predictions are and if there are better opportunities for renewable energy? 

Thanks, 

Ramana Koti, LEED AP 
Sustainable Building Analyst 

ELEMENTS division of BNIM architects 
106 W. 14th Street Suite 200 
Kansas City, Missouri 64105 

p 816.783.1635 f 816.783.1501 
www.bnim.com| elements.bnim.com <http://elements.bnim.com/>  
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