Can’t give you an example (and wouldn’t try – too many uncertainties in short- and long-term for any climate model to be accurate)… but the climate does change
with time. Design conditions in the ASHRAE Handbook are changing (increasing). From page 14.6 of the ASHRAE 2013 Fundamentals:
Climatic design conditions in this chapter are generally similar to
those in previous editions, because similar if not identical analysis
procedures were used. There are some differences, however,
owing to a more recent period of record (generally 1986-2010
versus 1982-2006). For example, when compared to the 2009 edition,
99.6% heating dry-bulb temperatures have increased by
0.31°F on average, and 0.4% cooling dry-bulb temperatures have
increased by 0.18°F on average.
Similar trends are observed for
other design temperatures. The root mean square differences are
0.74°F for the 99.6% heating dry-bulb values and 0.70°F for 0.4%
cooling dry-bulb.
From: EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Jim Dirkes
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2013 12:39 PM
To: EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [EnergyPlus_Support] Re: Long Term Weather Data Predictions
At the risk of being annoying, I’ll make a challenge: Does anyone know of a weather prediction model that looks more than a
month ahead and has been proven valid? (Note: peer review of research is not “proven”; it must be validated with an accepted protocol.)
James V Dirkes II, PE, BEMP, LEED AP
www.buildingperformanceteam.com
Energy Analysis, Commissioning & Training Services
1631 Acacia Drive, Grand Rapids, MI 49504 USA
616 450 8653
From:
EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of stnslvg
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2013 12:10 PM
To: EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [EnergyPlus_Support] Re: Long Term Weather Data Predictions
I found this website helpful for determining future weather trends:
http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov:8380/lasV8/UI.vm
It's possible to zoom in on specific regions and get future weather data of all types. Not sure how easy it will be to convert it into usable EPW. I haven't tried yet.
-Austin
--- In EnergyPlus_Support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "victorppadilha" wrote:
>
> My plan is basically to model a building under future climate situation. Does anyone knows where to find good weather data files that predicts in a 20 year time frame the north american climate?
>
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