It's not a one-time, but a continual effect that starts almost
imperceptibly but then increases over time. If you follow the model
predictions out to 2080, the cumulative impacts can be quite
striking. In my 2006 study for DOE, I found on aggregate for all
buildings (residential and commercial) a 18% decrease in site energy
due to the reduction of residential heating energy use, but a 6%
increase in source energy due to the increase in commercial cooling
electricity. In the worst cases (commercial buildings in Miami,
etc.) cooling energy use can be expected to go up by 40-100% by
2080, depending on the climate change scenario. In contrast, the
increases by 2020 are only 15% or so. The other way to look at it
is just by heating and cooling degree days. In my 2008 study for
California, you basically see a 300 mile shift northward by 2100,
with San Francisco having the same CDD as Santa Barbara now, and
Oakland as Camarillo now.
I didn't look very much at the change in design temperatures, but if
they're like the projected changes in monthly daily maxima, it looks
like a 10-15F increase in the summer and 10 F increase in the winter
in Washington DC by 2080.
There is more information in the PPT presentation given at the
SimBuild Conference in Berkeley 2008.
www.whiteboxtechnologies.com/downloads/Clim_Change/08_07_YJH_SimBuild_Clim_Chge.pdf
Joe
Joe Huang
White Box Technologies, Inc.
346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 108D
Moraga CA 94556
yjhuang@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com for simulation-ready weather data
(o) (925)388-0265
(c) (510)928-2683
"building energy simulations at your fingertips"
On 8/11/2013 2:47 PM, Jim Dirkes wrote:
I’m wondering how “extreme” you
think weather might become. I think long term climate
change varies on the order of about plus / minus 1-2C,
which doesn’t strike me as significant for system
sizing or annual energy use�.
James V Dirkes II, PE, BEMP,
LEED AP
www.buildingperformanceteam.com
Energy Analysis, Commissioning
& Training Services
1631 Acacia Drive, Grand
Rapids, MI 49504 USA
616 450 8653
Well, we are looking
into that too. I think it would be good to
have all forms available Typical, Extreme
and Future Metoriological Years.
Hello,
Excuse me for putting a slight
diversion on this subject of
weather data.
Correct me if i am wrong, the
EPW is typical year data, which
is a compilation of typical
months' data of the past 20-30
years historical records.
A not-so-far-fetched, apologies
if it is overly ambitious,
objective of simulation is to
predict how much conditioning
energy a building needs during
the design or planning of
retrofitting stage, i.e. before
the building is built.
Would it not be fair then to
have predicted weather data for
the coming year/s? This could be
based on some of the
'projections of global warming'
by year.....
Just a passing thought
regards, ooi
--- In mailto:EnergyPlus_Support%40yahoogroups.com,
Joe Huang <YJHuang@...>
wrote:
>
> Hu Jia,
>
> Here's more information on
the ASHRAE Research Project that
might be of interest to you.
> It's RP-828 "Sequences of
Extreme Temperature and Humidity
for Design Calculation",
> principal investigator Don
Colliver (former ASHRAE
president (!)), 1997. The
abstract
> follows:
>
> Specific values for the
design temperature have long
been used as a starting point
for
> design and sizing
calculations for many
applications. Designs using
these extreme one-hour
> values are appropriate if
the time constant of the system
being designed is short; however
> if the system being
designed has a significant
thermal lag the extreme
single-hour value
> can be significantly
inadequate. The purpose of this
report is to document the
development
> of a technique to select
sequences of data from long-term
weather records and then present
> the results of using this
technique on long-term weather
data from a number of locations
> in North America. A number
of different methods of
combining the multiple hours of
data
> within a sequence to
produce a single value which
then could be ranked were
tested. The
> method of taking the
average of the parameter over
the time window was selected as
the
> best method. It was found
that the non-steady-state heat
transfer method could not be
used
> as a reliable indicator of
the extreme sequences because
the specification of the wall
> type to be used introduced
a large variation in the
selection of the extreme
sequences.
> The purpose of this project
was to develop a technique to
select sets of data from
> long-term weather records
which could be used in designs
needing weather data longer than
> one hour and then use this
technique on long-term weather
data from a number of locations
> in North America.
>
> You can get the technical
report from the ASHRAE Web site
(free for members), but when I
> tried the Web site said it
couldn't find the PDF. If so,
you could also try to contact
> Don himself colliver@...
>
> Joe (also JH!)
>
> Joe Huang
> White Box Technologies,
Inc.
> 346 Rheem Blvd., Suite 108D
> Moraga CA 94556
> yjhuang@...
> http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com/
for simulation-ready weather
data
> (o) (925)388-0265
> (c) (510)928-2683
> "building energy
simulations at your fingertips"
>
>
> On 8/9/2013 4:12 PM, Joe
Huang wrote:
> > Your best bet is the
National Solar Radiation Data
Base (NSRDB) from NREL that
contains
> > the hourly weather
data for 1,454 US locations from
1991 through 2010.
> > http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_data/nsrdb/1991-2010/
> > That'll give you
plenty of data to work with.
> >
> > What is your
definition of extreme weather
conditions? Are you looking for
individual
> > hourly values, or
actual weather sequences? If
you're studying this with
EnergyPlus (or
> > any simulation
program), I would recommend the
latter, since the building's
response to
> > climatic conditions
depends a great deal on the
thermal history extending for up
to
> > several days. 20%
above normal sounds much too lax
to me, since ASHRAE design
conditions
> > are defined as 0.4%,
1%, and 2% for cooling and
99.6%, 99%, and 98% for heating.
> >
> > If you're working to
select extreme temperature
sequences, e.g., most extreme
3-day or
> > 5-day sequences, you
might look at work done about 20
years ago by Don Colliver for
> > ASHRAE (don't remember
the RP number or title), where
he produced 5-day design
sequences
> > for 230+ US locations
based on the highest or lowest
average daily temperatures,
> > selected using the
same 0.4%, 1% criteria and
method as used for the ASHRAE
Design
> > Condition tables. I
would think that updating that
work using the NSRDB would get
you
> > what you need, but you
might want to modify the
selection criteria.
> >
> > Joe
> >
> > Joe Huang
> > White Box
Technologies, Inc.
> > 346 Rheem Blvd., Suite
108D
> > Moraga CA 94556
> > yjhuang@...
> > http://weather.whiteboxtechnologies.com/
for simulation-ready weather
data
> > (o) (925)388-0265
> > (c) (510)928-2683
> > "building energy
simulations at your fingertips"
> >
> > On 8/9/2013 7:40 AM,
Jia Hu wrote:
> >>
> >> Hi all,
> >>
> >>
> >> I am studying the
impact of extreme weather
conditions using EPlus. I am
trying to find
> >> the source years
(e.g., 20 year data) to extract
the extreme data for each day?
Anyone
> >> has suggestion
about how to get the extreme
weather condition (e.g, 20%
above normal)?
> >> Where can I find
these source data. The location
of my interest is in US.
> >>
> >> Thanks,
> >>
> >> JH
> >>
>
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