[Bldg-sim] Energy Model from Green Star (LEED) to predictive model

[Chris Jones]

I don't believe there can be any hard rules about the percentage of 
error when calibrating a model.  The margin of error is proportional 
to the amount of information available.  The rest is engineering and 
experience.  Attached is a typical report we use to illustrate how 
close the calibration is.

This particular project is a community centre, pool, with an arena 
adjacent for heat exchange.  A tricky one.


At 05:16 PM 24/01/2013, Morgan Heater wrote:
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>I've been getting within 10% without calibration on the last five or 
>six buildings I've done where I've tracked the bills 
>afterwards.  The key is to be thorough and careful.  If you're not 
>getting reasonably close, how can you justify your recommendations 
>for energy efficiency measures?
>
>
>Morgan Heater, P.E.
>BEMP, LEED AP
>morgan at ecotope.com
>206-322-3753
>206-596-4709 Direct
>
>From: bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org 
>[mailto:bldg-sim-bounces at lists.onebuilding.org] On Behalf Of Kapil Upadhyaya
>Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2013 2:08 PM
>To: Jason Quinn; bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
>Subject: Re: [Bldg-sim] Energy Model from Green Star (LEED) to 
>predictive model
>
>Get utility bills (if you can), or Use Energy Star or CBECs for a 
>reference building (CBECs median may be higher than a 1930 building 
>!); based on these, you can present a range between 'simulated' 
>savings and 'estimated' savings.
>
>Kapil Upadhyaya, LEED AP
>Associate
>Kirksey | Architecture
>
>From: Jason Quinn [mailto:jason.e.quinn at gmail.com]
>Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2013 9:38 PM
>To: bldg-sim at lists.onebuilding.org
>Subject: [Bldg-sim] Energy Model from Green Star (LEED) to predictive model
>
>I've ALWAYS avoided predictive modeling (telling a client your 
>energy usage will be below X) as I've been scared. Now I'm pretty 
>deep into a project performing Green Star energy modeling and my 
>client has popped the question.
>
>We've discussed "why it is hard" and the big three un-knowns: 
>Infiltration, Occupant behavior!!, and Actual Weather. They still 
>want me to go forward and are willing to put a bunch of caviates and 
>an agreed margin on the results.
>
>This is an old 1930's building 200,000 sq ft with original metal 
>window frames (single pane) that will not be replaced (heritage). 
>We're insulating the roof and basement ceiling and a completely new 
>HVAC system. Is there a standard process I can follow or specific 
>suggestions the community could offer?
>
>So far my idea is to try and guesstimate infiltration, box in 
>comfort behavior with lease agreements and a survey, and put some 
>margin on weather.
>
>--
>Jason
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 >>
Christopher Jones, P.Eng.
Suite 1801, 1 Yonge Street
Toronto, ON M5E1W7
Tel. 416-203-7465
Fax. 416-946-1005
email cj at enersave.ca
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